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Live forecasts update automatically; written guidance last reviewed 16 June 2026 by the Toronto Post Weather Desk. Data from Environment and Climate Change Canada and other national met services via Open-Meteo.
Live data from Open-Meteo · updates automatically ·
Winter conditions across southern Ontario will bring daytime highs between -4°C and -1°C and a 40 percent chance of flurries, based on the live forecast above. That puts the city near seasonal norms for late January, though wind chill values near -10°C will make the afternoon feel noticeably colder.
How cold will it feel this week?
The live forecast above shows temperatures settling into the -5°C to -2°C range overnight, with wind chill values potentially dropping to -12°C before dawn. The Toronto weather pattern this week reflects a stable Arctic high-pressure system that will keep any significant storm systems south of the region. Environment Canada weather data indicates that the coldest day will likely be Wednesday, when the daytime high may struggle to reach -6°C. This is consistent with the winter weather 2023 trend of alternating mild and cold weeks across the Great Lakes basin.
Are any weather warnings in effect?
There are currently no weather warnings for the Greater Toronto Area, but lake-effect snow bands remain possible near the shoreline. The ontario weather warnings today map from Environment Canada shows a marginal risk of freezing drizzle late Thursday, which could affect the evening commute. Anyone travelling north of the city toward cottage country should monitor conditions, as lake-effect snow can reduce visibility to less than one kilometre in short bursts. For a broader look at conditions across the country, the Canada weather hub aggregates regional forecasts and alerts.
What qualifies as a winter weather warning in Ontario?
Environment Canada issues a winter weather warning when snowfall of 15 cm or more is expected within 12 hours, or when blowing snow or freezing rain creates hazardous travel conditions. These criteria differ from a winter storm watch, which is issued 24 to 48 hours before a potential event.
Should I expect lake-effect snow in Toronto this week?
Lake-effect snow is possible near the lakeshore when cold air moves over the relatively warmer waters of Lake Ontario. The live forecast above shows westerly winds that could push bands inland, but accumulations in the city itself are expected to remain under 5 cm. Areas east of Toronto, such as Durham Region, may see slightly higher totals.
How do wind chill values affect safety?
Wind chill describes how cold the air feels on exposed skin, not the actual air temperature. At -12°C with a moderate wind, frostbite can develop on exposed skin within 30 minutes. The winter weather temperature alone does not tell the full story; wind speed is equally important when dressing for the day.